Growth priorities
Four priorities for the next five years
- 01
Capacity
New biscuit line, baked-beans plant and snacks plant.
StatusCommissioning FY2026 to FY2028
- 02
Energy
Generators, grid supply and solar investment.
StatusGenerators already installed
- 03
Distribution
Wider general-trade reach and deeper market penetration.
StatusOptimised distribution
- 04
Mix and inputs
Product innovation, and strategic sourcing of inputs such as potatoes and fruit.
StatusGross-margin opportunity
US$30.1m of growth capital expenditure from FY2026 to FY2030.
Outlook
EBITDA forecast to rise to US$23.0m by FY2030
Near term · FY2026 forecast
- Revenue
- US$94.4mup 20% on FY2025
- EBITDA
- US$14.1m14.9% margin
Medium term · FY2030 forecast
- Revenue
- US$120.0mvolumes up 55% on FY2025
- EBITDA
- US$23.0m19.2% margin
Gross margin forecast to rise from 13.3% in FY2025 to 29.0% in FY2030 as new lines commission. Debt to be kept at or below about 0.5x EBITDA. Forecasts are the directors' projections.
Shareholder returns
Dividend policy
- Target payout ratio
- 30–40%
- The board intends to pay out 30% to 40% of earnings as dividends.
- First dividend after Admission
- 30%
- The first dividend after listing is intended at the 30% end of the range.
- At the board's discretion
- Board
- Dividends depend on earnings, cash needs and the capex plan. They are not guaranteed.
Prospective yield at US$0.35
- FY2026E
- 4.0%
- FY2027E
- 4.6%
At the Offer Price of US$0.35, on the directors' projections. Approximate.
Risks
Key risks and how they are managed
Mitigation reduces exposure; it does not remove it. The Prospectus sets out the full risk factors in Section 9; read them before applying.
| Risk | What could happen | How AB manages it | What remains |
|---|---|---|---|
| Currency and policy | Changes in currency or economic policy affect pricing, costs or the ability to transact. | Over 95% of revenue is billed in US dollars. | Policy changes remain a risk. |
| Inputs and competition | Weather affects potato and fruit supply; competitors put pressure on prices. | Local sourcing of key inputs. | Weather and pricing pressure remain. |
| Energy and projects | New capacity is delayed, or power and water supply is unreliable. | Investment in energy; generators already installed. | Capacity depends on timely commissioning and reliable utilities. |
| Lobels contract | Cailogistics' contract with Lobels ends in September 2027, reducing revenue by US$13.4m in the forecast bridge. | Redeploying the fleet, forecast to recover US$2.4m. | The net reduction is built into the forecasts. |
Four of the seven directors on Admission are independent, including the Chair.